Towards the Development of a Rationalist Cyber Conflict Theory

Abstract: 

"We believe there is a lack of a coherent Cyber Conflict Theory with adequate descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive capacities. We attribute this shortfall to the fact that the study of Cyber Conflict falls into two largely separate camps: International Relations and Information Security. International Relations experts study the phenomenon mostly using traditional conflict analysis models derived from the theory of conflict. On the other hand, Information Security experts focus on the tactical details of how cyber-attacks are conducted, but they are usually not involved in International Relations studies. The objective of this paper is to bridge this gap by linking the types of cyber-attacks both to their military consequences and their broader strategic consequences. To achieve this, we use Fearon’s Bargaining Model of War to analyze the impact that offensive cyber operations have on the probability of winning a war, the cost of war, and the risk of war. We identify three types of cyber operations: Extraction, Modification, and Denial of Service. Our model shows that these three types of cyber operations may have significant impacts on the risk of war and the outcomes of war at the strategic and tactical levels."

Author: 

Sergio Castro

Year: 

2021

Domain: 

Dimension: 

Region: 

Data Type: 

Keywords: