Russia’s Wartime Cyber Operations in Ukraine: Military Impacts, Influences, and Implications

Abstract: 

Russian cyberattacks against Ukraine have remained ineffective over the last year. Although "cyber fires" designed to disrupt systems or wipe data have largely targeted the same infrastructure as kinetic attacks, the physical attacks have been more effective in creating long-term damage. Ukraine is particularly resistant to cyberattacks due to its years-long investments into cybersecurity and recent international aid focused in the cybersphere. Additionally, Russia's weaker cyber capacity and failure to capitalize on non-state hackers has weakened its ability to maintain prolonged cyberattacks. In a drawn-out war such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, frequent attacks are needed to sustain real damage through "cyber fires". Conversely, Russian cyber intelligence gathering efforts could potentially be very effective, especially if the information gained includes geolocation markers of key targets. Although the information thus garnered hasn't been used by Russian intelligence forces, cyber information collection contains the most potential for harm if analyzed correctly and utilized effectively.

Author: 

Jon Bateman

Year: 

2022

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