“US national security planners have become concerned in recent years that this country might become engaged in various kinds of conflict in cyberspace. Such engagement could entail the United States as the target of hostile cyber operations, the initiator of cyber operations against adversaries, or some combination of the two. To date, most serious analytical work related to cyber conflict focuses primarily on the initial transition from a preconflict environment to that of conflict. Little work has been done on three key issues: (1) how the initial stages of conflict in cyberspace might evolve or escalate (and what might be done to prevent or deter such escalation), (2) how cyber conflict at any given level might be deescalated or terminated (and what might be done to facilitate de-escalation or termination), and (3) how cyber conflict might escalate into kinetic conflict (and what might be done to prevent kinetic escalation. Each of these issues is important to policymakers, both in preparing for and managing a crisis. Before beginning that discussion, it is instructive to consider some relevant terminology and concepts.”
