Is Cyber Deterrence Possible

This article, written by Timothy McKenzie for the Air Force Research Institute, dives into the feasibility of cyber deterrence. He starts his paper stating that the US must pursue a multilayered approach that utilizes all “instruments of US national power” and even then should not expect the same results from the cyber deterrence plan as it did with similar concepts in the past such as nuclear deterrence. He then expands on the idea of a multilayered approach by specifying that the US will need both active and passive deterrence methods if they want to put forth any sort of credible threat towards adversaries trying to break into our networks. Next, he analyzes the current US Cyber Policy and finds that some of the important core concepts are covered and that the US does have a multilayered approach with the 2011 White House document International Strategy for Cyberspace: Prosperity, Security, and Openness in a Networked World which states that the US is ready to pursue necessary actions against actors that aim to harm our digital infrastructure, however, there are still a lot of holes the US needs to fill. After that, he goes into the challenges faced in implementing effective cyber deterrence. He claims the two biggest challenges towards this goal are attribution for attacks and the fact that we don’t truly know the motivation of our adversaries and how much risk they will tolerate. Finally, he wraps up by giving his recommendations on how the US should move forward in approaching this subject such as recommending that the US be prepared to inflict more severe penalties and increase the credibility of their national strategy.